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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 3 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(14:24) (Shotgun) 16-I.Book pass incomplete short right [94-C.Wilkins].

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.58 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model