4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 17 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to NO 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.96 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP