Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 3 – Miami Dolphins 17

(2:55) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to MIA 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.08 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model