4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to MIA 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model