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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 10 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to NO 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-E.Winston.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.24 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 54, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP