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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 42

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Los Angeles Rams 30

What Actually Happened

(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to LA 26 for 16 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.90 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP