4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 6

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 8-M.Gay 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.18 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 6, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.98 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model