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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 3-J.Berry punts 40 yards to LA 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-B.Powell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-22-H.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.95 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 36, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP