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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to MIN 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP