4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 1-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.46 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 4, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP