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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 14

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 8-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.86 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP