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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 52

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to LV 24, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.20 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model