4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to DEN 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.23 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model