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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to 50 for 16 yards (10-D.Trufant).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model