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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 23

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.21 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model