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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 46

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 4-D.Carr up the middle to DEN 45 for 1 yard (90-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.91 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model