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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 53

Denver Broncos 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to LV 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model