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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 37

Denver Broncos 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:37) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.19 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model