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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 83

Denver Broncos 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LV 27, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 33 for 6 yards (37-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.50 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 83, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP