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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to DEN 8, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-39-N.Hobbs.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model