4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 31

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.23 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model