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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 0 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 17 for 4 yards (42-O.Burks). PENALTY on CLE-29-H.Miller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.02 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model