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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 0 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 33-A.Jones right end to GB 38 for 4 yards (36-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model