Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 24 – Cleveland Browns 15

(15:00) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at CLE 28 for 15 yards (46-S.Wirtel).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.92 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model