4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 21 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.55 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model