Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 14 – Cleveland Browns 12

(4:53) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-S.Wirtel, downed by GB-24-I.Yiadom.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model