4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery to SEA 2 for 2 yards (56-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model