4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 54

Chicago Bears 17 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(5:09) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete deep left to 8-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.44 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model