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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 25 yards to CHI 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 83-D.Newsome.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP