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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.68 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 17, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model