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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 52

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 37-D.Harris right tackle to BUF 48 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.09 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model