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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Buffalo Bills
4th & 2 at the 3
Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(6:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.17 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
- 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth -0.24 EP
KICK
+1.53 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
- 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT
-0.50 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
