Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 49

New England Patriots 21 – Buffalo Bills 33

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at BUF 3. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 3 for no gain (16-J.Meyers).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.85 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.33 EP

KICK -0.36 EP

26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
74% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model