Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 69

New England Patriots 21 – Buffalo Bills 33

(1:50) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to BUF 49 for 20 yards (49-T.Edmunds, 24-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

What Happened

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.24 EP
59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -2.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model