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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 34
Buffalo Bills 26 – New England Patriots 21
What Actually Happened
(4:27) 17-J.Allen left end to NE 26 for 8 yards (32-D.McCourty).
The Three Options
GO
+1.75 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.25 EP
- 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.20 EP
KICK
+0.81 EP
- 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
- 35% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
