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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 10

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to BUF 3 for 7 yards (58-M.Milano).

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.58 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model