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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 23

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones up the middle to BUF 17 for 6 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 96-C.Basham).

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.58 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model