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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model