Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 68

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 17

(1:12) 7-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to BUF 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 5-M.Stevenson pushed ob at BUF 20 for 15 yards (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.30 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model