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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to NE 11 for 23 yards (32-D.McCourty; 58-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.70 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model