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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 92

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to BUF 43, Center-49-J.Cardona. 5-M.Stevenson to NE 42 for 15 yards (48-J.Tavai).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.86 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 92, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 50, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP