Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 81

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(13:47) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 5-M.Stevenson ran ob at BUF 39 for 4 yards (25-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model