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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 7

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.96 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 7, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP