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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 1 at the 1
Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7
What Actually Happened
(:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.34 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 1, worth +0.76 EP
KICK
+2.26 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT
+0.18 EP
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
