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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 41 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.92 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model