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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 41

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 28-L.Murray up the middle to BAL 34 for no gain (92-B.Hill).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model