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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 18

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(:44) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model