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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins pushed ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards (54-T.Bowser).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.80 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model