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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 12

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.32 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model