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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model